The existing charging infrastructure is not designed to operate with optimized utilization and undermines the profitability of individual charging stations and the nationwide deployment of transportation electrification. Consequently, business owners and stakeholders should develop business strategies to enhance the existing charging infrastructure utilization. “Optimized Charging Station” simulator is a user-friendly tool providing insights for performance evaluation and operation management of a given charging station design and traffic pattern. “Optimized Charging Station” is built on advanced data analytics and optimization concepts and accommodates state-of-the-art products in the EV charging industry.
Ravil Bikmetov, Ph.D.
Steady growth of electric vehicle (EV) sales and EV car market share increase has been observed in the U.S. in the last decade. A record increase of about 81% in sales and about 67% in market share were detected in 2018. The observed trend of EV market share increase continued in 2020 .
In Q1 of 2021, EV sales increase of 81% far surpassed industry growth. Sales of battery EVs (BEVs) grew by 44.8% in comparison with Q1 of 2020, reaching a record number of nearly 100,000 units. Sales of hybrid EVs (HEVs) doubled to more than 200,000, surpassing both the market and BEVs' sales in Q1 of 2021. Whereas the overall automobile market increased by 11.4% in Q1. 
|Vehicle Type||Q1 2021||Q1 2020||Y-O-Y Increase|
|HEVs / PHEVs||204,921||99,719||105.50%|
|Total Car Market||3,907,738||3,509,299||11.35%|
|Total % Electrified||7.77%||4.79%||62.40%|
An expert forecast for the upcoming decade shows that EV sales will grow to reach approximately 29.5% of all new car sales in 2030 from an expected roughly 3.4% in 2021 . This forecast also estimates EV sales to increase to 4.7 million from just above 500,000 in 2021.
There are approximately 26.2 million cumulative electric vehicles sold in the U.S. since 2010. After factoring for EVs going out of operation each year, we estimate about 25.19 million EVs on the U.S. roads by 2030, observing a 14-fold increase from about 1.8 million EVs at the end of 2020 . The emerging expansion of EVs becomes a reality!
To address climate change issues, various automakers, electric vehicle organizations, and states have declared when they want to ban the sale of or end their production of vehicles powered by an internal combustion engine . These regulatory actions are essential factors for a steep EV car market share increase, expected to be observed in the U.S. starting from 2030.
|Jaguar||2025||Electric-only luxury brand|
|Volvo||2030||Entire car line-up will be fully electric|
|Zero Emission Vehicle Coalition||2030||A new vehicle purchased in California will be zero emission|
|Zero Emission Transportation Association||2030||Advocating for 100% of vehicles sold to be electric|
|Washington state||2030||Passenger cars and light-duty trucks must be electric to be registered|
|Massachusetts||2030||100% of new light-duty vehicles sold are zero emission|
|General Motors||2035||End production of cars, trucks, and SUVs with diesel- and gasoline-powered engines|
|California||2035||100% of new light-duty vehicles sold are zero emission|
|New Jersey||2035||All new sales of light-duty cars, SUVs, and trucks are electric|
|New York||2035||100% of in-state sales of new passenger cars and trucks are zero emission|
|FedEx||2040||The entire parcel pickup and delivery fleet will be zero-emission vehicles|
The EV battery price reduction, observed in the past and predicted in the future, is another factor accelerating EV adoption in the U.S. market. Based on BloombergNEF (BNEF) analysis, the average price per kWh of a Li-ion battery pack has reduced by 13% in the past year (from $157 in 2019 to $137 in 2020) and by 800% from its price in 2010 ($1,100 per kWh) . According to market analysis reviews, even if prices for Ni, Co, Li, and other raw materials used in batteries return to the highs seen in 2018, $100/kWh packs, which considered as a price parity between electric and gasoline engines, would be delayed by only a couple of years [4, 5]. Alternatively, several paths are indicated for a further price reduction to $58/kWh by 2023.
The EVs production and development has been facilitated by the growth of financing of the EV and related industries. Corporate investors outside of the auto industry invest extensively in EV projects by putting more than $20 billion in venture capital to the related electrification startups in 2019 . Professional investors, such as investment funds, also keep allocating capital in the EV charging industry despite the economic uncertainty of 2020 . The EV industry is also highly supported through related associations. Thus, Edison Electric Institute’s (EEI’s) member companies invested more than $1 billion in programs and projects to accelerate development of electric transportation and charging services . Leading efforts of US electric companies also aim to develop charging infrastructure that can support more that 18 million EVs in 2030 [9, 10]. U.S. Senate passed Infrastructure Bill, funding EV transportation development by $15 billion, out of which $7.5 billion is allocated for development of EV charging stations across the country .
Despite rapid expansion of EV charging infrastructure within the last five years, both in terms of accessibility and efficiency [6, 10], there various shortcomings have been observed in its adoption:
• EV adoption is rapidly surpassing the growth of charging infrastructure. This gap becomes larger in the recent years [1, 3, 12, 13].
• About 90% of public chargers installed in the U.S. are designed for light-duty EVs and have slow charging rate. It leads to an overall shortage of fast chargers for rapidly increasing population of certain EV types [1, 6].
• A shortage of fast chargers is observed in higher EV-adopting areas of the U.S. (e.g., many parts of California). This effect is more pronounced on busy holidays peak commute times, and with DC fast chargers [6, 13].
• Many EV charging sites remain underutilized. The reported utilization can be as low as 8% for certain charging networks .
The current electric vehicles (EVs) adoption has already surpassed charging infrastructure growth and continues to expand rapidly [1, 3, 12, 13]. Although the global EV industry has accomplished significant achievements in a relatively short time (driven by regulations, strong technical innovation in batteries, and increasing investment in EV platforms), the directions of public charging infrastructure development, an important factor associated with EV uptake, remain unclear [6, 12]. A lack of well-developed public charging infrastructure with fast charging capabilities can ultimately limit further adoption of EVs due to driving range anxiety and trip delays caused by slow charging rates [6, 13].
Consequently, expanding charging infrastructure is crucial for current and future consumers of EVs. However, a simple solution to an increasing number of charging stations would require significant upfront costs for hardware and parking [6, 10]. In addition, overbuilding of charging stations can crater the economics of the charging business, leading to large numbers of stations that are underutilized and unprofitable to operate. Finding the right profitable business model among the EV charging networks remains a challenge .
Alternatively, the installation of future charging stations can be reduced by operational optimization of current charging stations and integrated into a localized infrastructure. In addition, design optimization of future charging stations can be performed. Through a close collaboration of all stakeholders (electric companies, automakers, policymakers, etc.), targeted deployment of such infrastructure will expand customer choice, helping scale and ensure the availability of needed EV charging stations achieving nationwide and global clean energy and transportation goals.
12. K. Kazi, R. Bikmetov, C. Lim, M. Y. A. Raja, and A. Kelsey, "Secure, Resilient, and Safety Critical Architecture of Charging Stations for Unsupervised Autonomous Vehicles," presented at the 21st Int'l Conf. on Intelligent Transportation Systems, Maui, HI, USA, 2018.